111-Day Moving Average vs 350-Day Moving Average × 2
How it works: When the 111-DMA crosses above the 350-DMA×2, it has historically signaled the top of every Bitcoin bull market cycle (2013, 2017, 2021) — often within 3 days of the exact peak.
Historical crossovers (cycle tops):
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BTC vs Traditional Assets
Cumulative return: BTC vs S&P 500 (SPY, total return), Gold (GLD), US Total Bonds (AGG), NASDAQ & a synthetic 70/30 portfolio (monthly rebalanced). All series normalized to 100 at window start.
How to read: All series start at 100. A line at 130 means +30% cumulative. Click a label in the legend to hide/show that series. Past observations only — not a forecast or trading signal.
Cumulative return summary:
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Stock-to-Flow Model
Supply scarcity model — actual price vs S2F model price
How it works: Stock-to-Flow measures scarcity as the ratio of existing supply (stock) to annual new production (flow). After each halving, the flow halves and S2F doubles, historically correlating with major price increases. The model price is derived from: price = e^(3.21 × ln(S2F) - 1.6)